Finance

2025 Inflation Forecast: 6.5-7%, Causes & Mobile/Internet Price Rises

Forecast for end-2025 inflation at 6.5-7% in Russia, driven by cost-push factors, regulations, and currency effects. Why mobile service and internet prices are rising: higher capex, spectrum fees, and compliance costs passed to consumers.

1 answer• 1 view

What inflation rate is forecast for the end of 2025, what factors are driving it, and why are prices for mobile services and internet rising?

The official прогноз инфляции на 2025 points to roughly 6.5–7.0% inflation at the end of 2025 (инфляция 2025), although consumer expectations are higher and some short‑term indicators show stronger price pressures. The main причины инфляции are a mix of cost‑push shocks (higher equipment, energy and labour costs), supply and currency effects, regulatory and tax changes, and sticky expectations; those same forces explain why цены на мобильную связь and цены на интернет are rising as operators pass higher capex, spectrum and compliance costs to customers.

Contents

Forecast for end‑2025 inflation (прогноз инфляции на 2025)

Short answer: the Bank of Russia and several major analysts place the expected inflation rate at about 6.5–7.0% at the end of 2025. The Bank’s macroeconomic survey gives a point reading near 6.6% and cites an internal projection of roughly 6.5–7.0% for year‑end 2025 (Bank of Russia survey). SberCIB and market reports report the same 6.5–7% band for 2025 and expect inflation to ease further in 2026 as policy tightness works through the economy (SberCIB; Interfax summary).

Why the gap with public expectations? Surveys show households expect much higher inflation (consumer median expectation near 12.6%), and enterprise price expectations have accelerated (about 4.2% annualized over three months in the Bank’s survey). That divergence—official forecasts vs. public/firm expectations—makes inflation stickier and forces policymakers to keep a tighter monetary stance (Bank of Russia survey; see also macro stats at the Bank’s site) (Bank statistics).

What’s driving inflation (причины инфляции)

Inflation today isn’t a single cause—it’s several factors piling up at once.

  • Cost‑push pressures (big driver). Import and equipment prices have jumped, energy and logistics costs rose, and many firms face higher wages and rents; businesses are passing those costs into prices. The Bank’s survey specifically notes faster cost growth across sectors, which lifts enterprise price expectations (Bank of Russia survey).

  • Currency and import dependence. When the ruble weakens or import channels are restricted, the price of imported components goes up. For telecoms and ISPs—heavy users of network equipment—this matters a lot.

  • Regulatory and fiscal changes. Higher taxes or sectoral charges (spectrum fees, data‑retention rules) increase operating costs for firms; planned VAT and other tax shifts also feed price expectations and margins.

  • Demand shifts and bottlenecks. Certain services saw demand spikes (for example, higher voice and data traffic), which creates temporary supply pressure and speeded investment in capacity.

  • Expectations and monetary conditions. Consumers expecting higher inflation will seek higher wages and firms may pre‑empt price rises; to counter that the central bank keeps policy tight, which helps but also signals how elevated inflation is (Bank statistics; SberCIB forecast).

Put simply: higher input and compliance costs + demand shifts + sticky expectations = elevated inflation around 6.5–7% by end‑2025.

Why mobile service and internet prices are rising (цены на мобильную связь, цены на интернет)

Telecoms are a concrete example of the general forces above, but with industry‑specific twists.

  • Operators are planning material tariff hikes. Industry polling finds roughly 95% of operators planning increases in the 10–15% range (many cite a 10–15% band, with broadband showing the largest planned increases) — carriers say equipment, energy and staff costs, plus regulatory fees, are the culprits (DP.ru analysis).

  • Capex for networks is rising sharply. Equipment costs reportedly rose ~66% in 2024 and are 2–3× higher over four years for some lines of kit; at the same time spectrum and frequency payments have increased substantially (frequency fees were cited as rising by a multiple), which raises per‑subscriber cost and reduces room to absorb inflation (DP.ru).

  • Regulatory compliance and data costs. Rules that require data storage and retention (the Yarovaya package and related requirements) force extra spending on data centers and ongoing operating costs; operators factor those into tariffs (URA.RU report).

  • Tax and duty changes. A VAT increase (scheduled from 2026 in some reports) and other fiscal shifts push firms to raise prices ahead of or in response to the change (URA.RU).

  • Demand and service mix. Changes in usage patterns matter: one report notes voice traffic jumped ~30% after restrictions on foreign messengers, pushing many users onto plans with more minutes or bigger bundles; that raises average revenue per user (ARPU) choices and network load, prompting investment (URA.RU).

  • Currency exposure. Import dependence for specialized equipment means swings in the ruble translate to higher local costs; coupled with disrupted supply chains, replacement and maintenance become more expensive.

So: operators face higher capital and operating costs (equipment, spectrum, energy, staff), plus new regulatory burdens and tax changes—those get passed on to subscribers as higher tariffs for mobile service and broadband. Market reports suggest communication prices could rise in the single‑digit to mid‑double‑digit percentages by end‑2025 (8–15% is commonly cited in industry surveys) (URA.RU; DP.ru).

What to expect for consumers and businesses

  • Tariff direction: Expect gradual increases through 2025. Industry polling points to typical hikes in the ~8–15% range for communications; exact timing will vary by operator and region (DP.ru; URA.RU).

  • Monetary outlook: Monetary policy is likely to stay tight until inflation moves decisively toward target; that should help bring inflation down beyond 2025 but not instantly (the Bank and major analysts point to a multi‑year path back to the 4% target) (SberCIB; Bank of Russia survey).

  • What you can do: shop promotional bundles, lock in fixed‑price offers where sensible, compare provider tariffs, and watch bundled services (TV+internet/phone) which sometimes cushion headline increases. For businesses: plan capex and contract renegotiations with suppliers and review indexing clauses that tie prices to inflation or FX.

Sources

Conclusion

Bottom line: the current прогноз инфляции на 2025 centers on about 6.5–7.0% (инфляция 2025). The principal причины инфляции are cost‑push shocks (equipment, energy, wages), regulatory and fiscal changes, currency/import pressures and sticky expectations; those same pressures explain the rising цены на мобильную связь and цены на интернет as operators raise tariffs to cover higher capex, spectrum and compliance costs. Expect communication tariffs to move higher (single‑digit to low‑double‑digit percent ranges through 2025) unless input costs or policy conditions change materially.

Authors
NeuroAnswers
Author
Verified by moderation
NeuroAnswers
Moderation
2025 Inflation Forecast: 6.5-7%, Causes & Mobile/Internet Price Rises